All Issue

2025 Vol.18, Issue 3 Preview Page

Original Article

Estimation of SCS Curve Number Using MOLUSCE Model-Based Land Cover Change Prediction

MOLUSCE 모델에 의한 토지피복 변화 예측과 SCS-CN 산정

Ji-Yeol Ryu1
,
Young-Woo Lee1
,
Kye-Won Jun2*
류 지열1
,
이 영우1
,
전 계원2*
1Pro, SK ecoplant / Ph.D. Candidate, Graduate School of Disaster Prevention, Kangwon National University
2Professor, Graduate School of Disaster Prevention, Kangwon National University
1SK에코플랜트 프로 / 강원대학교 방재전문대학원 박사과정
2강원대학교 방재전문대학원 교수
*Corresponding Author
30 September 2025. pp. 11-17
PDF XML Citation
Abstract

This study utilizes the QGIS MOLUSCE model to predict flood and drought risks associated with extreme climate events and urbanization. The model was applied to analyze historical and projected land cover changes in the Wonjucheon watershed. Using land cover maps from 2013 and 2024, future scenarios for the 2030s, 2040s, and 2050s were simulated, revealing a continuous increase in urbanized dry areas and a decrease in agricultural and forested land. Based on these projections, the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN), a critical hydrological parameter, was estimated to gradually increase, indicating higher runoff and peak discharge under equivalent rainfall conditions. These results quantitatively demonstrate the relationship between urbanization and natural disaster risks and provide essential data for developing early warning systems and disaster mitigation strategies. The approach offers a valuable framework for enhancing flood and drought management in rapidly urbanizing regions facing climate variability.

Keywords
MOLUSCE
Land cover change
Urbanization
SCS-CN
Flood and drought risk

본 연구는 이상기후와 도시화에 따른 홍수·가뭄 위험을 예측하기 위하여 QGIS의 MOLUSCE 모형을 활용하였다. MOLUSCE 모형을 이용해 연구 대상인 원주천 유역의 과거 및 미래 토지피복 변화를 분석하고, 이를 바탕으로 SCS-CN 값을 산정하였다. 원주천 유역 소유역을 대상으로 2013년과 2024년 토지피복도를 바탕으로 2030년대, 2040년대, 2050년대 변화를 예측한 결과, 시가화 건조지역은 지속적으로 증가하였으며 농경지와 산림은 감소하는 추세를 보였다. 이에 따라 SCS-CN 값도 점진적으로 상승하여 동일 강우 조건에서 유출량과 첨두유량 증가가 예상된다. 본 연구는 도시화와 자연재해 간의 연계성을 정량적으로 제시하며, 향후 홍수·가뭄 대비 조기 경보 및 방재 전략 수립의 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

키워드
MOLUSCE
토지피복 변화
도시화
SCS-CN
홍수 및 가뭄 위험
References
1

Alshari, E. A. and B. W. Gawali. (2022). Modeling Land Use Change in Sana’a City of Yemen with MOLUSCE. Journal of Sensors. 2022: 7419031.

10.1155/2022/7419031
2

Chang, Hyung Joon, Ho Jin Lee, Ki Soon Park, and Seong Goo Kim. (2023). Analysis of the Runoff Characteristics of Small Mountain Basins Using Rainfall-Runoff Model_Danyang1gyo in Chungbuk. Journal of the Korean Geo-Environmental Society. 24(12): 31-38.

10.14481/JKGES.2023.24.12.31
3

Das, S. and R. Sarkar. (2019). Predicting the Land Use and Land Cover Change Using Markov Model: A Catchment Level Analysis of the Bhagirathi-Hugli River. Spatial Information Research. 27(4): 439-452.

10.1007/s41324-019-00251-7
4

Gangwon Innovation City Development Support Center. (2025). Gangwon Innovation City Development Support Center. Retrieved from https://www.gicc.or.kr

5

Hamad, R., H. Balzter, and K. Kolo. (2018). Predicting Land Use/Land Cover Changes Using a CA-Markov Model under Two Different Scenarios. Sustainability. 10(10): 3421.

10.3390/su10103421
6

Hawkins, R. H., T. J. Ward, D. E. Woodward, and J. A. Van Mullem. (2009). Curve Number Hydrology: State of the Practice. Reston, VA: ASCE/EWRI.

10.1061/9780784410042
7

Heo, Chang Hwan. (2003). Characteristics of Runoff Variation due to Watershed Urbanization. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association. 26(5): 725-740.

10.3741/JKWRA.2003.36.5.725
8

Khawaldah, H. A., I. Farhan, and N. M. Alzboun. (2020). Simulation and Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Change Using GIS, Remote Sensing and CA-Markov Model. Environmental Earth Sciences. 6(2): 215-232.

10.22034/gjesm.2020.02.07
9

Korea Meteorological Administration. (2025a). Climate Characteristics of Summer 2025: Repeated Heatwaves and Heavy Rain, Polarization of Heavy Rain and Drought by Region. Daejeon: KMA.

10

Korea Meteorological Administration. (2025b). Report on Abnormal Climate and Disaster Damages in 2024. Daejeon: KMA.

11

Lee, Bo-Ram, Dae Myoung Jeong, and Sung Yeol Choi. (2019). Analysis of Urban Runoff Discharge Characteristics Affected by Climate Change and Urbanization: Case on Bokdae-dong Basin. Journal of The Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation. 19(3): 41-46.

10.9798/KOSHAM.2019.19.3.41
12

Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. (2025). Press Release: Status of Urban Planning as of 2024. Sejong: MOLIT.

13

Mishra, S. K. and V. P. Singh. (2003). Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) Methodology. Springer, Dordrecht.

10.1007/978-94-017-0147-1
14

Ponce, V. M. and R. H. Hawkins. (1996). Runoff Curve Number: Has It Reached Maturity? Journal of Hydrologic Engineering. 1(1): 11-19.

10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(1996)1:1(11)
15

Tang, Q., X. Zhang, Y. Xu, and J. Gao. (2021). Application of the SCS-CN Method in Hydrological Modeling under Land Use and Climate Change. Water. 13(4): 512.

10.3390/w13040512
16

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service. (2004). National Engineering Handbook. Part 630 Hydrology. Chapter 9: Hydrologic Soil-Cover Complexes. Washington, DC: USDA-NRCS.

17

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service. (1986). Urban Hydrology for Small Watersheds (Technical Release 55). Washington, DC: USDA-SCS.

10.2737/NE-TR-55

Korean References Translated from the English

1

강원혁신도시발전지원센터 (2025), https://www.gicc.or.kr

2

국토교통부 (2025). ｢2024년 기준 도시계획현황 통계｣ 보도자료. 세종: 국토교통부.

3

기상청 (2025a). [2025년 여름철 기후특성] 폭염-호우 반복, 집중호우-가뭄 지역 양극화. 대전: 기상청.

4

기상청 (2025b). ｢2024년 이상기후 보고서｣ 및 재난 피해 보고서. 대전: 기상청.

5

이보람, 정대명, 최성열 (2019). 기후변화 및 도시화에 따른 도시유출특성 분석: 복대동 유역을 대상으로. 한국방재학회 논문집. 19(3): 41-46.

10.9798/KOSHAM.2019.19.3.41
6

장형준, 이호진, 박기순, 김성구 (2023). 강우-유출모형을 활용한 소규모 산지 유역의 유출특성 분석_충북 단양1교. 한국지반환경공학회 논문집. 24(12): 31-38.

10.14481/JKGES.2023.24.12.31
7

허창환 (2003). 유역의 도시화에 따른 유출변화특성. 한국수자원학회지. 26(5): 725-740.

10.3741/JKWRA.2003.36.5.725
Information
  • Publisher :Korean Society of Disaster and Security
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국방재안전학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국방재안전학회 논문집
  • Volume : 18
  • No :3
  • Pages :11-17
  • Received Date : 2025-09-17
  • Revised Date : 2025-09-19
  • Accepted Date : 2025-09-22
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.21729/ksds.2025.18.3.11
Journal Informaiton Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
Online submission
  • KISTI Current Status
  • KISTI Cited-by
  • KCI 문헌 유사도 검사
  • orcid
  • open access
  • ccl
Journal Informaiton Journal Informaiton - close