Parameter Optimization Analysis Reflecting Runoff Characteristic Changes due to Urbanization in Watershed

Young-Woo Lee; Ji-Yeol Ryu; Kye-Won Jun

doi:10.21729/ksds.2025.18.2.27

All Issue

2025 Vol.18, Issue 2 Preview Page Next Page

Original Article

Parameter Optimization Analysis Reflecting Runoff Characteristic Changes due to Urbanization in Watershed 도시화에 따른 유역의 유출특성 변화를 반영한 매개변수 최적화 분석

30 June 2025. pp. 27-35

PDF XML

Abstract

Recently, urban flood damage has been increasing due to localized heavy rainfall. In particular, rapid urbanization in Korea has led to the expansion of impervious surfaces, resulting in a trend of increased flood runoff in rivers. This study targeted the Wonju Bridge watershed in Wonju City, Gangwon Province, and estimated the SCS-CN (Soil Conservation Service Curve Number) according to land cover changes by period. The parameters obtained from the single nationwide parameter empirical formula in the “Standard Guidelines for Flood Estimation” were compared and analyzed with those derived using the optimization function of the HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model. For SCS-CN estimation, land cover maps from the Ministry of Environment and detailed soil maps from the Rural Development Administration were utilized. The time of concentration (Tc) and storage coefficient (K) were calculated using both the single nationwide parameter empirical formula and the optimization function of HEC-HMS. In addition, four representative short-term flood events for each period were selected based on water level and rainfall data from the WAMIS system. The results showed that applying the optimized parameters produced simulated peak flood flows similar to observed values, and the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) increased by up to 0.86, approaching 1.0, indicating improved simulation performance. This suggests that, in urbanized watersheds, optimized parameters reflecting watershed characteristics can more accurately represent flood runoff characteristics than the generalized parameters from the nationwide empirical formula. Based on the findings of this study, it is considered that applying optimization techniques that account for watershed characteristics will enable highly accurate simulations for future flood prediction and hydrological modeling.

Keywords

HEC-HMS

Urbanization

Land use change

Localized heavy rainfall

Optimized parameters

최근 국지적 집중호우로 인해 도시 지역의 홍수 피해가 증가하고 있으며, 특히 우리나라는 급격한 도시화로 불투수면이 확대되면서 하천의 홍수 유출량이 증가하는 추세를 보이고 있다. 본 연구는 강원도 원주시 원주교 유역을 대상으로, 연대별 토지피복 변화에 따른 SCS-CN(유출곡선지수)를 산정하고, ｢홍수량 산정 표준지침｣의 전국에 적용되는 단일 매개변수 경험식과 HEC-HMS 모형의 최적화 기능을 활용하여 도출한 매개변수를 비교 ‧ 분석하였다. SCS-CN 산정에는 환경부 토지피복도와 농촌진흥청 정밀토양도를 활용하였으며, 도달시간(Tc)과 저류상수(K)는 전국에 적용되는 단일 매개변수 경험공식과 HEC-HMS의 최적화 기능을 통해 산정하였다. 또한, WAMIS에서 제공하는 수위 및 강우 자료를 바탕으로 각 연대별 대표 4개 단기 홍수사상을 선정하였다. 연구 결과, 최적화된 매개변수를 적용한 경우 관측된 첨두홍수량과 유사한 값이 산정되었고, 모의 정확도를 나타내는 NSE 값도 최대 0.86증가하여 1.0에 근접하여 모의 성능이 향상됨을 확인하였다. 이는 도시화가 진행된 유역에서는 전국에 적용되는 단일 매개변수 경험공식의 일반화된 매개변수보다 유역 특성을 반영한 최적화 매개변수가 홍수 유출 특성을 더 정확하게 반영함을 시사한다. 본 연구 결과를 바탕으로, 향후 홍수 예측 및 수문 모의 시 유역 특성을 고려한 최적화 기법 적용을 통해 정확도 높은 모의가 가능할 것으로 사료된다.

키워드

HEC-HMS

도시화

토지이용변화

집중호우

최적화 매개변수

References

Chang, Hyung Joon, Ho Jin Lee, Ki Soon Park, and Seong Goo Kim. (2023). Analysis of the Runoff Characteristics of Small Mountain Basins Using Rainfall-Runoff Model_Danyang1gyo in Chungbuk. Journal of the Korean Geo-Environmental Society. 24(12): 31-38.

10.14481/jkges.2023.24.12.31

Choi, Jung Hwa, Jeong Ju Lee, and Hyun Han Kwon. (2009). An Analysis of the Runoff Variation due to Urbanization in Cho-kyung Stream Watershed. Journal of Wetlands Research. 11(3): 161-169.

Heo, Chang Hwan. (2003). Characteristics of Runoff Variation due to Watershed Urbanization. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association. 26(5): 725-740.

10.3741/JKWRA.2003.36.5.725

Hydrologic Engineering Center (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers). (2018). HEC-HMS Hydrologic Modeling System User's Manual. Davis, CA: Hydrologic Engineering Center.

Kim, Sung-Uk, Kye Won Jun, Tae Wan Kim, and Bae Dong Kang. (2024). Assessment of Stormwater Drainage Capacity Using XP-SWMM for Urban Flood Damage Mitigation: Focused on Gunsan City. Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security. 17(4): 107-115.

10.21729/ksds.2024.17.4.107

Lee, Bo-Ram, Dae Myoung Jeong, and Sung Yeol Choi. (2019). Analysis of Urban Runoff Discharge Characteristics Affected by Climate Change and Urbanization: Case on Bokdae-dong Basin. Journal of The Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation. 19(3): 41-46.

10.9798/KOSHAM.2019.19.3.41

Lee, Hyoun A. (2012). Catchment-Scale Hydrological Response to Land Use Change - A Case Study for the Wangsuk River Basin. Master's Thesis, Seoul National University.

Lim, Jong Sung. (2025). Development of Empirical Formulas for Parameters to Estimate Discharge at a Single Catchment. Ph.D. Dissertation. Chungbuk National University.

LX. (2024). Urban Planning Status Statistics (2023).

Ministry of Environment. (2019). Standard Guidelines for Design Flood Estimation. Sejong: ME.

Moriasi, D. N., J. G. Arnold, M. W. Van Liew, R. L. Bingner, R. D. Harmel, and T. L. Veith. (2007). Model Evaluation Guidelines for Systematic Quantification of Accuracy in Watershed Simulations. American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers. 50(3): 885-900.

10.13031/2013.23153

Mousavi, J., F. Mikayilov, B. Kamali, and M. Amini. (2012). Uncertainty-Based Automatic Calibration of HEC-HMS Model Using Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Approach. Journal of Hydroinformatics. 14(2): 286-309.

10.2166/hydro.2011.071

Ongaga, C. O., M. Makokha, K. Obiero, I. Kipkemoi, and J. Diang'a. (2024). Urbanization and Hydrological Dynamics: A 22-Year Assessment of Impervious Surface Changes and Runoff in an Urban Watershed. Frontiers in Water. 2024(6): 1-18.

10.3389/frwa.2024.1455763

Shin, Chan Sub. (2014). Development of Parameters for Clark Synthetic Unit Hydrograph in Korea. Master's Thesis. Seokyeong University.

Zhao, C., H. Zhang, H. Wang, and J. Zhao. (2023). Analysis of Changes in the Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Impervious Surfaces and Their Influencing Factors in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration of China from 2000 to 2018. Heliyon. 9(8): e18849.

10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e1884937600372PMC10432980

Korean References Translated from the English

김성욱, 전계원, 김태완, 강배동 (2024). 도심지 침수피해 저감을 위한 XP-SWMM 기반 우수 배제 능력 검토: 군산시를 중심으로. 한국방재학회 논문집. 17(4): 107-115.

10.21729/ksds.2024.17.4.107

신찬섭 (2014). 실측 수문사상을 이용한 Clark합성단위도의 한국형 매개변수 산정식 개발. 석사학위논문. 서경대학교.

이보람, 정대명, 최성열 (2019). 기후변화 및 도시화에 따른 도시유출특성 분석: 복대동 유역을 대상으로. 한국방재학회 논문집. 19(3): 41-46.

10.9798/KOSHAM.2019.19.3.41

이현아 (2012). 토지이용 변화에 따른 유출특성 변화-왕숙천 유역을 사례로. 석사학위논문. 서울대학교.

임종성 (2025). 독립 수계 유역에 대한 홍수량 산정 매개변수 경험식 개발. 석사학위논문. 충북대학교.

장형준, 이호진, 박기순, 김성구 (2023). 강우-유출모형을 활용한 소규모 산지 유역의 유출특성 분석_충북 단양1교. 한국지반환경공학회 논문집. 24(12): 31-38.

10.14481/jkges.2023.24.12.31

최정화, 이정주, 권현한 (2009). 조경천 유역의 도시화에 따른 유출 변화 추이 분석. 한국습지학회지. 11(3): 161-169.

허창환 (2003). 유역의 도시화에 따른 유출변화특성. 한국수자원학회지. 26(5): 725-740.

10.3741/JKWRA.2003.36.5.725

환경부 (2019). 홍수량 산정 표준지침. 세종: 환경부.

Information

Publisher :Korean Society of Disaster and Security
Publisher(Ko) :한국방재안전학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
Journal Title(Ko) :한국방재안전학회 논문집
Volume : 18
No :2
Pages :27-35
Received Date : 2025-06-18
Revised Date : 2025-06-25
Accepted Date : 2025-06-25
DOI :https://doi.org/10.21729/ksds.2025.18.2.27

Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security ISSN:2466-1147(Print) 2508-285X(Online) 한국방재안전학회 논문집

All Issue

Korean References Translated from the English