All Issue

2026 Vol.19, Issue 2 Preview Page

Original Article

Flood Risk Analysis and Development of Stage-Based Alarm Levels in the Majalaya Area of the Upper Citarum River

찌따룸 강 상류 Majalaya 지역의 홍수위험도 분석을 통한 단계별 경보수위 설정 연구

Sung Soo Lee1
,
Kye Won Jun2*
,
Tae Jung Jung1
,
Seung Ryong Yang3
이 성수1
,
전 계원2*
,
정 태정1
,
양 승룡3
1Ph.D. Candidate, Graduate School of Disaster Prevention, Kangwon National University
2Professor, Graduate School of Disaster Prevention, Kangwon National University
3Professor, Department of Civil Engineering and Desaster Prevention, Yeoju University
1강원대학교 방재전문대학원 방재관리전공 박사과정
2강원대학교 방재전문대학원 교수
3여주대학교 토목방재과 교수
*Corresponding Author
30 June 2026. pp. 29-40
PDF XML Citation
Abstract

This study aims to quantitatively assess flood risk in the Majalaya area of the upper Citarum River basin, Indonesia, and to establish stage-based alarm levels and evacuation criteria. The flood risk analysis was conducted by integrating the HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model and the HEC-RAS 2D hydraulic model to calculate the inundation depth and area by return period, thereby quantifying the risk for each stage. The HEC-HMS model estimated design discharges for return periods of 2, 25, 50, and 100 years by applying Log-Pearson Type III frequency analysis and the Huff fourth-quartile temporal distribution. Concurrently, the HEC-RAS 2D model simulated the inundation extent, depth, and velocity through the numerical analysis of two-dimensional unsteady continuity and momentum equations. The simulation results revealed that the inundated area expanded approximately 9.5-fold, from 163.59 ha for the 2-year return period to 1,550.15 ha for the 100-year return period, while the mean inundation depth increased from 1.2 m to 2.1 m. Based on a comparative analysis of the Indonesian PUPR guidelines, the Rating Curve methodology, and the Korean flood warning criteria, the levee-height ratio approach (Option 2) was selected as the optimal alternative due to its superior reflection of local hydrological characteristics and suitability for the CBDRM framework. By applying this selected option, a three-stage alarm system consisting of GREEN (Caution), YELLOW (Alert), and RED (Danger) levels was established. Furthermore, this system was compared and analyzed against Korea’s four-stage flood warning system (Attention, Caution, Alert, and Serious) to ensure its effective application as a reliable basis for CBDRM action plans.

Keywords
Flood risk analysis
Inundation depth·Inundation area
Citarum River
Alarm stage
Evacuation criteria

본 연구는 인도네시아 찌따룸 강 상류 Majalaya 지역을 대상으로 홍수위험도를 정량적으로 분석하고, 이를 기반으로 단계별 경보수위 및 대피기준을 설정하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 홍수위험도 분석은 HEC-HMS 강우-유출 모형과 HEC-RAS 2D 수리 모형을 통합 적용하여 재현빈도별 침수심 및 침수면적을 산정하고, 이로부터 단계별 위험도를 정량화하는 방식으로 수행하였다. HEC-HMS 모형은 Log-Pearson Type III 빈도분석과 Huff 4분위 시간분포를 적용하여 2년·25년·50년·100년 재현빈도별 설계홍수량을 산출하였으며, HEC-RAS 2D 모형은 2차원 비정상류 연속 방정식과 운동량 방정식을 수치 해석하여 침수범위·침수심·유속을 모의하였다. 침수면적은 2년 빈도 163.59 ha에서 100년 빈도 1,550.15 ha로 약 9.5배 확대되었으며, 평균 침수심은 1.2 m에서 2.1 m로 증가하였다. 인도네시아 PUPR 지침, Rating Curve 기반 기준, 한국의 홍수경보 기준을 비교 분석한 결과, 제방고 비율 기반 옵션2을 지역 수문 특성 및 CBDRM 적합성 측면에서 최적안으로 선정하었다. 이를 적용하여 GREEN(주의)·YELLOW(경계)·RED(위험) 3단계 경보수위를 수립하고, 한국의 관심·주의·경계·심각 4단계 홍수경보 체계와 비교 분석하여 CBDRM 실행계획에 근거로 활용될 수 있도록 하였다.

키워드
홍수위험도
침수심·침수면적
찌따룸 강
경보수위
대피기준
References
1

Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana. (2012). Guideline for Community-Based Disaster Risk Management Activities in Indonesia. Jakarta: BNPB.

2

Balai Besar Wilayah Sungai Citarum. (2021). Laporan Rencana Pengelolaan Sumber Daya Air Wilayah Sungai Citarum 2021-2025. Bandung: BBWS Citarum.

3

Bates, P. D., M. S. Horritt, and T. J. Fewtrell. (2010). A Simple Inertial Formulation of the Shallow Water Equations for Efficient Two-Dimensional Flood Inundation Modelling. Journal of Hydrology. 387(1-2): 33-45.

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.03.027
4

Brunner, G. W. (2021). HEC-RAS River Analysis System User’s Manual Version 6.0. Davis, CA: US Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering Center.

5

Chow, V. T. (1959). Open Channel Hydraulics. New York: McGraw-Hill.

6

Clark, C. O. (1945). Storage and the Unit Hydrograph. Transactions of the American Society of Civil Engineers. 110(1): 1419-1446.

10.1061/TACEAT.0005800
7

Kementerian Pekerjaan Umum dan Perumahan Rakyat. (2016). SE Dirjen SDA 05/SE/D/2016: Petunjuk Teknis Operasi dan Pemeliharaan Prasarana Sungai. Jakarta: Kementerian PUPR.

8

Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) and Ministry of Environment (ME). (2021). Practical Manual for Flood Forecasting and Warning Operations. Seoul: Han River Flood Control Office.

9

Ministry of the Interior and Safety. (2022). Criteria and Manual for Issuing Disaster Crisis Warnings. Sejong: MOIS.

10

Moriasi, D. N., J. G. Arnold, M. W. Van Liew, R. L. Bingner, R. D. Harmel, and T. L. Veith. (2007). Model Evaluation Guidelines for Systematic Quantification of Accuracy in Watershed Simulations. Transactions of the ASABE. 50(3): 885-900.

10.13031/2013.23153
11

Shrestha, B. B., M. Rasmy, and D. Kuribayashi. (2025). Flood Exposure Dynamics and Quantitative Evaluation of Low-Cost Flood Control Measures in the Bengawan Solo River Basin of Indonesia. Hydrology. 12(2): 38.

10.3390/hydrology12020038
12

United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. (2022). Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2022. Geneva: UNDRR.

13

US Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering Center. (2000). Hydrologic Modeling System HEC-HMS Technical Reference Manual. Davis, CA: USACE.

14

US Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service. (1986). Urban Hydrology for Small Watersheds (TR-55). 2nd ed. Washington D.C.: USDA-NRCS.

15

Wijaya, T. and Y. Wijayanti. (2024). Flood Mapping Using HEC-RAS and HEC-HMS: A Case Study of Upper Citarum River at Dayeuhkolot District, Bandung Regency, West Java. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. 1324(1): 012103.

10.1088/1755-1315/1324/1/012103

Korean References Translated from the English

1

국토교통부·환경부 (2021). 홍수예보·경보 운영 실무 매뉴얼. 서울: 홍수통제소.

2

행정안전부 (2022). 재난위기경보 발령 기준 및 매뉴얼. 세종: 행정안전부.

Information
  • Publisher :Korean Society of Disaster and Security
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국방재안전학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국방재안전학회 논문집
  • Volume : 19
  • No :2
  • Pages :29-40
  • Received Date : 2026-06-16
  • Revised Date : 2026-06-22
  • Accepted Date : 2026-06-23
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.21729/ksds.2026.19.2.29
Journal Informaiton Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
Online submission
  • KISTI Current Status
  • KISTI Cited-by
  • KCI 문헌 유사도 검사
  • orcid
  • open access
  • ccl
Journal Informaiton Journal Informaiton - close